Market Trend Overview

     Success in equity investing involves the uninterrupted hold of equity based assets for a long period, allowing for the compounding of dividends, retained earnings, and corporate earnings growth ( "time compounding" ), thus leading to a "maximal" terminal portfolio growth that an investor may realize. However, for some investors, emotions and behavior may interrupt this process, leading an investor to sell equity assets prematurely ( the uncomfortable behavioral bias know as "loss aversion" ). If an investor absolutely, positively must shift away from equity based assets into defensive assets, it is important to employ an objective and mechanical tactical method that intervenes, only rarely, in the holding process - one that provides a high degree of certainty towards doing so. This process, "The Moving Average Process: A Tactical Method Towards Adjusting Portfolio Risk", is described here                                and whose signaling is updated below, when and if conditions warrant.

 

               Market Trend  July 2022 ( updated June 30th and November 30th )
 

( Trend as described in " The Moving Average Process: 

A Tactical Method Towards Adjusting Portfolio Risk"  in E-Books tab)

  

States of Signaling Logic
 

  a) if, on June 30th of the year, the S&P 500 price resides above the moving average = hold equity assets
( U.S. stocks ) *

 

  b) if, on June 30th of the year, the S&P 500 price resides below the moving average and the “year to date” return Is negative =  shift into an  allocation of Treasury bonds ( for example, 50% Treasury bond assets and hold 50% equity assets ) 

 

  c) if on November 30th, after condition “b” has occurred, the S&P 500 price resides below the moving average = hold 50% Treasury bond assets and 50% equity assets 

 

  d) if on November 30th, after condition “b” has occurred, the S&P 500 price resides above the moving average = shift into 100% equity assets ( U.S. stocks ) 


  e) On June 30th of the second year of the Presidential term, shift into ( or continue holding ) equity assets
( U.S. stocks ) irregardless of what the S&P500 / moving relationship indicates


* The S&P 500 residing above the moving average on June 30th = no further monitoring of the configuration on November 30th

The tactical strategy is signaling an "e" state ( hold equity assets )
 with last signal date July 2009 ( see Table 1 below )

Market Trend =
Positive / Offensive *
( S&P 500 "price" below Moving Average )

2022 = 2nd Presidential Term Year
 
* price below moving average during 2nd Presidential year = null / trend still positive

      Table 1

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Table 2

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