Market Trend  July 2021 ( updated June 30th )
 

( Trend as described in " The Moving Average Process: 

A Tactical Method Towards Adjusting Portfolio Risk"  in E-Books tab)

  

Signaling Logic states: 

 

  a) if, on June 30th of the year, the S&P 500 price resides above the moving average = hold equity assets
( U.S. stocks ) *

 

  b) if, on June 30th of the year, the SP 500 price resides below the moving average and the “year to date” return Is negative =  shift into an  allocation of Treasury bonds ( for example, 50% Treasury bond assets and hold 50% equity assets ) 

 

  c) if on November 30th, after condition “b” has occurred, the SP 500 price resides below the moving average = hold 50% Treasury bond assets and 50% equity assets 

 

  d) if on November 30th, after condition “b” has occurred, the SP 500 price resides above the moving average = shift into 100% equity assets ( U.S. stocks ) 


  e) On June 30th of the second year of the Presidential term, shift into ( or continue holding ) equity assets
( U.S. stocks ) irregardless of what the SP500 / moving relationship indicates


* The S&P 500 residing above the moving average on June 30th = no further monitoring of the configuration on November 30th

The tactical strategy is signaling an "a" state ( hold equity assets )
 
with last signal date July 2009 ( see Table 1 below )

Market Trend =
Positive / Offensive
( S&P 500 "price" above Moving Average )

2021 = 1st Presidential Term Year

      Table 1

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Table 2

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